{
 "slug": "59-214434-sp-16-7-18-1963",
 "title": "59 214434 SP 16 [7.18.1963]",
 "agency": "NARA / Historical",
 "year": "1963",
 "page_count": 6,
 "source_page": "https://wearenotalone.space/document/59-214434-sp-16-7-18-1963/",
 "original_file": "https://wearenotalone.space/Season 01/Release_1/59_214434_SP_16_[7.18.1963].pdf",
 "license": "U.S. Government work — public domain. Text is machine OCR from the original scan; the page image is authoritative.",
 "pages": [
  {
   "n": 1,
   "image": "https://wearenotalone.space/transcripts/59-214434-sp-16-7-18-1963/p01.jpg",
   "text": ".·\n{'\\ Clf'l/\\1\nlll'\\r-\nf'\\ 11 \\/\nEXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT\nNATION AL AERO N A UT I C S\nand SP A CE\nWASIDNGTON\nMEMORANDUM FOR\n18, 1963\nMr. Robert F . Packard\nOffice of International Scientific Affairs\nDepartment of State\nWashiY'2~/\nSUBJECT: Thoughts on the Space Alien Race Question\n-\n----\nDuring recent discussions the question has occasionally, though\nrarely, arisen that perhaps we should consider the policy question\nof what to do if an alien intelligence is discovered in space. Some\ndiscussion of this occurred, as you will recall, during deliberations\non BNSP Task I. This memo contains some miscellaneous thoughts\non the question.\nThe consensus of scientific view says, with quite good reasons, that\nthe p~ssib.lity of running across an alien intelligent race in our solar\nsystem • s negligible.\nThis is due primarily to the presumed unsuit-\nabili\nof conditions upon other planets to support life as we know it.\nThe ..!.!Ying saucer advocates claim, of course, that the scientific\nviewpoint ~sense, and that there is overwhelming evidence of\nsuch beings. In my own mind, I find it difficult to side with the flying\nsaucer advocates, but the almost total impossibility envisioned by\nmost scientists also is disturbing. Therefore, I present the problem\nin current perspective, as I see it.\nUp until a few decades ago it seemed very improbable that intelligent\nlife existed anywhere outside of the solar system. The chief reasons\nfor this were a combination of scientific theory, scientific knowledge,\nand religious belief. The most widely accepted scientific theory as\nto the formation of the solar planetary system held that it was a re-\n-\nf sult of the near collisfon of two stars. Since such a p r ~cise ne: r-miss\nQ/\n~-j:f('IAI\nIIC'r\n111, ~:'jf\n.-.J, n ...\nVVL\n~\n/ ,·u I~ 1Av _ _.,_..,, .a , .. I.:> I ij I a I 6\nA"
  },
  {
   "n": 2,
   "image": "https://wearenotalone.space/transcripts/59-214434-sp-16-7-18-1963/p02.jpg",
   "text": "-· .\nI ' I\n- 2 -\nof two stars would be an extremely rare event, it followed that there\nwould be very few other planetary systems in the universe and, in-\ndeed, perhaps this was the only one. Religious belief said, further-\nmore, that life was a gift bestowed by God. This was a relatively\nundisputed point since no scientific data existed to bridge the gap\nbetween non-living and living materials.\nThe situation today is vastly changed in these respects. The most\nwidely held theory of stellar formation would predict the formation of\nplanetary systems to be a natural consequence of stellar evolution.\nOn this basis, most stars would possess planetary systems, and the\nnumber of habitable planets in our galaxy would be tremendous. Our\nbiggest telescopes cannot resolve planets at the distances even of the\nnearest stars, so no direct confirmation is yet available. In my own\nmind, however, the wide prevalence of multiple stars is an overwhelm-\ning hint in support of this theory. In addition, the biological sciences\nhave almost completely traced a series of natural occurrences which\nlead from inanimate molecules to elementary living viruses. Thus,\nwe have the current scientific theory and data not only that there are\na huge number of planets in the galaxy, but that life is quite likely to\narise spontaneously on a large number of these. This, of course, does\nnot necessarily imply intelligent life. Modern theology is not necessarily\nincompatible with this. The description in Genesis of the Creation cer-\ntainly is a better picture of the current theory than of a stellar collision,\nand since God only spent seven days on this system, He has clearly had\nlots of time to create many more systems.\nEven granting a probable existence of much life in the galaxy, there is\nstill the question of whether another intelligent race exists in our solar\nsystem. There are, of course, two methods of its establishment in our\nsystem. One of these is that it originated on some other planet, for\ninstance, Mars. Some of the spectacular markings of Mars have been\ninterpreted as indicating intelligence. In particular, the famous 11 Canali 11\nare rather narrow, and always run from one prominent marking to\nanother, frequently with round splotches at intersections. As far as I\nknow, no one has discovered a II Canali11 which goes nowhere. This has\nquite understandably stimulated much conversation. In fact, a number\nof decades ago, when scientists thought that any life on other stellar\nsystems was very remote, they seemed to feel that intelligent life\niJ~FICIAL USE ONtV--"
  },
  {
   "n": 3,
   "image": "https://wearenotalone.space/transcripts/59-214434-sp-16-7-18-1963/p03.jpg",
   "text": "I ISF ONLY\n- 3 -\nprobably existed on our other planets. Some of the discussions about\nlife on Mars at the turn of the century seem to indicate a strong urge\nto want to find intelligent life elsewhere. Today, the situation is\ncompletely reversed, and although intelligent life is considered quite\nprobable among the stars, it is held to be quite unlikely within the\nsolar system. We seem more eager to listen with Ozma than to look\nclosely at Canali.\nOne school of flying saucer advocates claims that the Martians have\nbeen mining our moon for natural resources for some time. At first\nthought, one would think they would rather mine earth. It is interesting\nto speculate, however, upon space flight from the point of view of a\nMartian. The escape speed of Mars is only 161 500 fps, and, of course,\nbraking speed on our moon is less than 10, 000 fps. Thus, Martians look-\ning at earth would tend to view it the same way Terrestrials look at Jupiter.\nOur moon might not be less work to get to, since atmospheric braking to\nearth is possible, but would be very much easier to return from, while\nthe energy requirements to go to and return from the surface of the earth\nmight well be so high as to discourage interest, at least initially,. Inter-\nestingly enough, even a normal high energy chemical rocket could make\na trip from Mars to our moon at favorable times while carrying almost\n10% of its gross weight in payload. Space flight starting from Mars,\nthen, is a much easier prospect than starting from Terra. If a suitable\nrefueling base had been painfully established on our moon, the operation\ncould be done quite commendably with merely chemical energy. (The afore-\nmentioned high energy chemical rocket could carry at favorable times\nalmost 50% payload back to Mars.) Of course, many flying saucer advo-\ncates claim that the discovery of both Martian moons within a week in the\nlatter part of the Nineteenth Century indicates that they are large artificial\nspace stations, otherwise they would have been found earlier. If we were\nto discover Martians on the moon, it would result in surprisingly little re-\nadjustment of our scientific thinking.\nThe biggest question would be why\nthey were there rather than among the Asteroids.\nIn fact, if we were not as scientifically sure of ourselves as we are, three\nrecent events would be hailed as broad hints of intelligent life on the moon.\n( 1) The discovery of hot gasses eminating from the crater Alphonsus when\nthe moon was supposedly dead. This would be considered evidence of civili-\nzation and, since Alphonsus is close to the visible edge, interpreted to mean\nthat the other side of the moon was teaming with population which had begun\nOff f t.;1 '' E U~O~I LY\n_,,,"
  },
  {
   "n": 4,
   "image": "https://wearenotalone.space/transcripts/59-214434-sp-16-7-18-1963/p04.jpg",
   "text": "- 4 -\nto spill around to this side. (2) The infra-red scans which show hot\nspots. These would be interpreted as indications of cities or at least\nmining camps. (3) The fact that no lunar or planetary probe of signi-\nficance has been successful, in spite of major efforts on the part of\ntwo very successful earth orbitfaring nations. It would be supposed\nthat someone was denying us deep space. (The other-side-of-the-moon\npictures from Lunik III show no details of consequence, and the same\ncan be said of the data from Mariner II compared to what we had already\nknown about Venus from earth-based measurements.) Should the Martians\nhave colonized the moon without discovering nuclear energy, then they\nrepresent no real problem, and our current national policy would be\nmade to order for the situation. If all of this were true, of course, I\nwould expect the Martians to be scared to death of what they have seen\nrecently on this planet, and would expect that the highest priority de-\nvelopment program in the solar system is being conducted by the Atomic\nEnergy Commission of Mars.\nEven if we are secure in our belief that intelligent life never would develop\non Mars or some other solar planet, there is still the question of visitors\nto the solar system from other stellar systems. This is normally written\noff as an extremely low probability, due to the tremendous distances be-\ntween stars, and the Einstein limitation on travel faster than the speed\nof light. Therefore, even if there are a large number of intelligent life\nforms in the galaxy, and even if they are continuously searching for other\nraces, the frequency of investigation of any stellar system would be only\non ce in many thousand of years and contact would rarely, if ever, be\nachieved. It might never be achieved, since presumably intelligent races\ndie out. (What happened to the planet whose pieces now are spread around\nthe Asteroid Belt? Or, for that matter, why is Uranus lying on its side?)\nI am not sure that this travel restriction is quite as infallible as it sounds.\nI believe that it is possible with what we now know about nuclear energy\nto envision ships driven at half to three-quarters of the speed of light.\nThis, since the galaxy is 100,000 light-years across, still does not make\na search of the entire galaxy feasible within the life span of the average\nman. But suppose some race under pressure of population explosion were\nexpanding as fast as technically feasible from star to star throughout the\ngalaxy. If their ships averaged half the speed of light, and if, on the average,\nthey stopped every 10 light-years for a twenty-year stay at a stellar system\nto deposit colonists, refuel, and build extra ships, they would only take\ntwo hundred thousand years, starting at the center of the galaxy, to spread\nur-t\"'!=i\nFFr=-tl-:-:-\nC ltt:A+-L-H\nU s~[-----:...:GN-J"
  },
  {
   "n": 5,
   "image": "https://wearenotalone.space/transcripts/59-214434-sp-16-7-18-1963/p05.jpg",
   "text": "Olf lCiAL\n- 5 -\nthroughout the whole system. Since the earliest known remains of\nman have recently been dated at approximately one million seven-\nhundred thousand years, a sustained drive for merely two hundred\nthousand years may not be unreasonable. Of course, if we were to\nrun across representatives of this kind of interstellar race, they\nwould not be nearly as tame as the previously hypothesized chemical\nMartians, and our policy would need to be revised accordingly.\nFortunately, travel time restrictions would inhibit their ability to\nbring all forces to bear, in case we should develop differences of\nviewpoint.\nThe third possibility, scientifically abhorrent, is that the Einstein\ntheory may only be an approximation, and an alien race which actually\ntravels faster than light exists. If we were to meet such a race, our\npolicy had better be to negotiate fast, because the implications of their\nfar better understanding and control of the fundamental forces of nature\nwould be obvious. If all the scientific speculation were to turn out wrong\nand we were to stumble across an alien race, we would want to know\nas quickly as possible which of the three types I have indicated it was,\nas our diplomatic policy would damned well be influenced by the results.\nCONCLUSIONS\nAlthough all plausible scientific thinking suggests that we will not find\nany other intelligence race, the probability that we will is finite, and\nperhaps should not be completely ignored. Were we to find one, the\nquestion of whether it was a race with primitive chemical space flight,\nspace flight equivalent to our best understanding of nuclear energy, or\nspace flight based on physics beyond Einstein should be ascertained as\nrapidly as possible, since our policies would be affected in the most\ndrastically possible way. In any event, a policy of the immediate burying\nof all Terrestrial hatchets would likely be in order. Even if we only\nfound tame chemical Martians, or merely the debris from some intra-\nglactic survey mission, it would be a good idea to proceed on the assump-\ntion that the human race would finally have found a bigger problem than\nthe ones it has created for itself. There likely is nothing to be done at\n9FFIC~E ONLY"
  },
  {
   "n": 6,
   "image": "https://wearenotalone.space/transcripts/59-214434-sp-16-7-18-1963/p06.jpg",
   "text": ". .\n' . .\n. '\nOfFl~,AL USE ONLY ,\n- 6 -\nthe moment to prepare for these possibilities (the only body of writing\non the subject available in an emergency is science fiction), because\nno one of consequence is going to take this rubbish seriously unless\nit happens. At that point, our policy will be determined in the tradi-\ntional manner of grand panic.\nMaxwell W. Hunter, II\nMember, Professional Staff\nSFRCc.LA-11Ati--t--rrUS.,-E ~onrN Lv-\nY ---"
  }
 ]
}